We Know Why Change is Coming, What next? There is no vaccine for climate change.
Wildfire near Penticton, BC, Canada. Source: Summerland Review: Photographer Douglas Drouin captures the Christie Mountain wildfire above homes in Heritage Hills on Aug. 18, 2021.
Our world has changed a lot these past several years. Not caused only by this ongoing global pandemic but our climate, which literally blankets every aspect of our Earth. I will take a bet that you cannot find anyone that has not heard about climate warming caused by climate change due to carbon emissions, mainly from fossil fuels. Whether people believe the science or not, they know that changes are happening. I am one of those that view the past 1.5 years in a SARS-Cov-2 pandemic as a warning that that our Earth must get seriously organized if we intend to tackle a common emergency. Our performances have been mixed at best and new reports are not encouraging. Recent data tell us that globally nations are “planning to extract more than double the amount of fossil fuels permitted by the toughest climate change goal of the Paris Agreement.”
We had another shock to our global intelligence on August 9th, only a few weeks ago. I urge you to have a look at the August 9, 2021, release of the AR6 report by the International Panel on Climate Change ( established in 1988).
“The report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850–1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming.” Further: “It has been clear for decades that the Earth’s climate is changing, and the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed,”.
Try taking this quick poll of your friends and family. Simply ask: “What word or words come to mind when you hear this phrase — — climate change?” So far, I’ve heard heat, flooding, sea levels rising, forest fires and hurricanes, to name a few. I’m not surprised. From February 2020 until present day greater than 4,913,722 human lives have been lost to COVID-19 (due to Delta and other variants). Imagine what it could have been were it not for the global effort to rapidly develop and deploy millions of doses of vaccines with high specificity for COVID-19 within a matter of months. Then add on the thousands of casualties and destruction due to extreme weather events, most notably to date in 2021 in the northern hemisphere. Insurance premiums, of any kind, are on their way up. We are at the bottom of a global $ 5 trillion(US) industry. Canada is no different than other nations when risk must be estimated to adjust for the current and projected climate changes. We are part of a massive and dynamic system.
Anyone that believes a fraction of the science-based evidence must know that at the current concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG, shown below) that the rate of temperature rise has accelerated due their trapping heat. The most commonly naturally occurring GHG is carbon dioxide (~65%), others include methane, nitrous oxides and water vapour, the latter which has been known for years to be a major driver of global warming. Atmospheric chemistry explains that “ water vapor does not control the Earth’s temperature, but is instead controlled by the temperature”. For more information on the primary sources of GHG, their effects and their distributions, go to this source: https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases .
Source: US EPA
Can we set aside our excuses and our never ending “what if” debates and begin implementing what we know must be done? We must be talking seriously about the forecasts of extreme transitions in our economies and lifestyles. The huge one being weaning ourselves off fossil fuels, the major sources of GHGs, and the health risks due to particulate matter PM < 2.5µm. While it is unrealistic to believe changes will happen overnight, we should set goals and follow-through with plans to meet the coming transformations. As pointed out in a recent release from the Brookings Institution, adaptation and protection must be a partnership between public and private sectors.
Originally published at https://medium.com on October 21, 2021.
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I began my science career as an undergrad working at an agricultural experiment station. From there I expanded to population genetics and ecology. Since 1988 my
