The Carboniferous Period and why it created Earth’s addictions
During a ~60-million-year interval of the Carboniferous Period, 360–300 million years ago, CO2 levels increased more than 8 times the present. It was during that period that large coal beds were laid down from the decaying organic matter that originated from the vast ancient seas and terrestrial plants. The ability of higher plants to uptake CO2 and metabolize it via photosynthesis was earlier evolved in the oceans by cyanobacteria. Photosynthesis provided the inputs for growth, repair, reproduction and maintenance, via the production of a 6-carbon sugar (glucose) using chlorophyll, and energy from our Sun, and in the process, yields 6 molecules of oxygen (O2); we know why O2 is important.. Those ancient events made possible much of what we experience today. The schematic of photosynthesis is shown here.
The two processes above have created a feedback loop that sustains life on Earth. The 2nd equation is a brief picture of what happens during cellular respiration when an energy source (glucose in this example) is broken down and releases 30–32 high energy adenosine triphosphate (ATP) molecules that are necessary to sustain the feedback and provide energy for life. Respiration occurs in what we have long known as the cellular “power plants” — — mitochondria.
The Carbon laid down more than 300 million years ago has turned Humans into “Fossil fuel addicts”
We now know that history books are filled with examples of how burning coal to generate power, and later including oil and gas, has resulted in billions of metric tonnes of carbon (CO2) having been emitted back into the Earth’s atmosphere: suddenly 60 million years of sequestered CO2 has been re-entering our Earth’s atmosphere but in such a very short time, ~ 200 years of industrialization vs 60 million years to lay down the carbon. Both time periods are only fractions of the 3.8 billion years of Earth’s existence.
We are addicts (my words) and have been now for ~200 years, since the Industrial Revolution which gained momentum during the mid-19th century, with explosive growth after World War II.
1. In 2019 ~84% of the global energy consumption and 64% of the electricity used was from fossil fuels.
2. Over 80% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) generated by human activity comes from burning them: around 35 billion tonnes a year.
3. Data from the IEA (International Energy Agency) are used globally to monitor and make policy. If your are interested, follow it for updates.
4. Why are we addicted to fossil fuels? According to analyses by the Brookings Institute the global metrics clearly show that we humans have placed ourselves in a “big box” (my quotes). Our economies trended up for the past 70 years while our environments, our quality of health, food security, wars but all have trended inversly with the acceleration of global atmospheric CO2 levels due to burning fossil fuels.
5. “Plastics, which are made from fossil fuels, are set to drive nearly half of the growth in oil demand by midcentury, according to the International Energy Agency. That outpaces even hard-to-decarbonize sectors like aviation and shipping.”
6. I encourage you to take a few seconds to look at this interactive video from the Brookings which tracks the use of fossil fuels since the 19th century.
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left
Now, here’s the cause for so much concern that we have been hearing about for over 30 years. Given current knowledge and best metrics, there is the big issue whether the Earth will be habitable when those years arrive. Given current rates of CO2 emissions and climate change, the arithmetic says “not likely”.
Based upon the data plotted above (adjusted for 2016) here’s what I have calculated:
· Coal: all gone by 2130. · Natural gas: all gone by 2069. · Oil: all gone by 2067.
Here’s one of the conclusions from the latest IPCC report released this past February 2022:
“Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and human systems (high confidence). For 127 identified key risks, assessed mid- and long- term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed (high confidence).”
My “take home message”: having oil and gas to burn for more than another 60 years and coal for over 100 years makes no difference. We can hope that sufficient adjustments will have been adopted by 2040 (18 years from now) which will severely curb/eliminate our dependence upon fossil fuels.
Note: Let me be clear — — I am not anti-economy or for taking jobs away. Those must be sustained but in a different economy. I confess that I am not comfortable with where our current economy has taken us and there are no obvious off-ramps.. Yes. We must set goals for breaking our fossil fuel additions so we can come in for a soft landing, not a crash. In my opinion… we really need a unified plan beyond the COP26 Conference (enhancing the Paris Accord). We badly need leadership. The latter deficit worries me more than anything else today. It’s going to be up to today’s young people to create the world that will sustain them.
Be watching soon for another of my essays on how the CO2 from burning fossil fuels is being monitored by the Keeling Curve; that’s how we know whether our mitigation efforts will have any effects.
A note to you, the reader: my time as an environmental scientist (environmetrics) and also having come to believe that indeed “climate change” is real has lead me to most want to educate and provide information on topics about which I think are important and about which I enjoy learning more.
Thank you for taking your time to read my writing … remember, it is difficult to write without some personal bias. However, each of us must decide was is important for us, and including everyone else, regardless their status.
You can contact me at this address: zackflorence2016@gmail.com
Originally published at https://medium.com on August 19, 2022.
