Measuring Uncertainty
Most everything that we think we know is based upon an estimate: all estimates have an element of uncertainty.
I posted an introduction to Uncertainty here:
This section opens up some of the core concepts when measuring uncertainty: more references are at the end of this article.
Frequentist vs Bayesian
Gaussian or Normal Distribution applies to continuous variables.
Frequentist is often the “ standard” when uncertainty is measured. Most everyone doing data analyses are familiar with the standard normal distribution, μ (mean)=0, σ(standard deviation)=1, i.e. two parameter Gaussian, standard normal distribution.
The Bayesian model has as its basis this philosophy: “…expresses a degree of belief in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event.” Therefore, the probability, with its inherent uncertainty, is the core of the analysis.
Choosing between those two methodologies is a matter of objectives and beliefs.
Uncertainty in Climate: https://climatedata.ca/resource/uncertainty-in-climate-projections/
Variance Components vs ANOVA
Propagating Uncertainty
Quantifying Uncertainty
Even “constants” contain uncertainty: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/when-working-out-the-uncertainties-what-to-do-with-the-constants.379160/#:~:text=The%20uncertainties%20of%20constants%20can,the%20measurement%20when%20determining%20uncertainties
https://medium.com/codex/the-uncertainty-of-the-statistical-data-eb49dea8866d
Generative AI
Ever increasing sophisticated computing capabilities have introduced ever more uncertainty into what our brains tell us that we are seeing or reading.
Who is the author? Who was the artist? Is that a real landscape?
The Uncertainty of Language. Lacking context, what is the meaning? Which is it? Each of the below, from the author, have a probability attached to it. Bayesian might be the best approach. What do you think?
St_ck (stock)
St_ck (stack)
St_ck (stick)
St_ck (stuck)
The Entropy of Information
Information that is Undetectable
Have a look here: https://zack-florence.medium.com/can-we-measure-what-we-cannot-observe-af22b547dd9e
Satellite imagery to map ocean activities that take place out of sight: https://theconversation.com/we-used-ai-and-satellite-imagery-to-map-ocean-activities-that-take-place-out-of-sight-including-fishing-shipping-and-energy-development-219367?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%20%20January%204%202024%20-%202840728796&utm_content=Daily%20Newsletter%20%20January%204%202024%20-%202840728796+CID_2737a5ced59c68d55864439f9ec27423&utm_source=campaign_monitor_us&utm_term=We%20used%20AI%20and%20satellite%20imagery%20to%20map%20ocean%20activities%20that%20take%20place%20out%20of%20sight%20including%20fishing%20shipping%20and%20energy%20development
Chaos, Complexity Theory and Fuzzy Logic
“Fuzzy logic is a form of many-valued logic in which the truth value of variables may be any real number between 0 and 1. It is employed to handle the concept of partial truth, where the truth value may range between completely true and completely false.[1] By contrast, in Boolean logic, the truth values of variables may only be the integer values 0 or 1.”
If you have any thoughts, like me, about quantum physics, fuzzy logic has overtones. Why? Is the value 1.50 or 1.60? It can be part of both. Granted that many sound a little too theological/philosophical but consider the possibilities.
What is the Life Time of a Human Culture?
If you do nothing but glance at today's headlines, you are forgiven if you think today’s global culture has served its time, plus. Maybe so, but based upon what we know, cultures (societies) come and go. They evolve. Barring cataclysmic events like starvation, wars and diseases. Examples come to mind: Mayan, the grand cities are deserted but the people remain; Egypt, the massive consumption based culture of the Pharaohs is gone but the people are there.
Life span of civilization, see “Frank”: https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/the-universal-anthropocene
Life time of a civilization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse#:~:text=The%20social%20scientist%20Luke%20Kemp,is%20close%20to%20340%20years
Is There Only One Universe?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiverse
Uncertainty within and among Political Forms of Government
Does a two party system manage uncertainty?
Uncertainty in Weather vs. Climate
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2011.0161
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/2923/2022/hess-26-2923-2022.pdf
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/oxford/field/field_document/How_to_be_certain_of_uncertainty_in_climate_and_weather_forecasts.pdf
Thanks for using your time to look at my work. Give me a “clap” if you’re in the mood.
cheers
Zack Florence
Further reading: a couple of References
Kirkup and Frenkel (2006). An Introduction to Uncertainty in Measuremnet Using the “GUM”. Cambridge University Press. 231p.
M G Morgan and M Henrion (2012). Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, 2nd printing, 332p.
