LIFE ≡ UNCERTAINTY
The title contains a symbol of equivalency, not of equality or identity. We humans may not enjoy living with what can seem like persistent uncertainty but it’s a fact of life. It is baked into our Universe. From the time that humans are toddlers we learn that life can be very unpredictable, scary, unfair but also at times very uplifting. If the probabilities of future events during our lifetimes were so finite and well defined as tossing a handful of dice, what a different world it would be!
Humans can Live with it but Can it be Explained?
Philosophy of Reason and Skepticism: Quoting, “Even if you are not familiar with philosophy, you will likely have heard of Plato and Socrates. Socrates was notoriously skeptical of the widely accepted opinions his peers held. He preoccupied most of his life with answering our deepest questions. You have probably heard Socrates’ most quoted saying, “The only thing I know is that I know nothing.” This has puzzled many for millennia due to its supposed contradiction, earning it the title of “The Socratic Paradox.” For if the only thing I know is that I know nothing, then I must know something. It refutes itself, many shrug.”.
Let’s consider this: could this be one of the most succinct definitions of uncertainty as a human?
Uncertainty Principle: Quoting, “In everyday life, calculating the speed and position of a moving object is relatively straightforward. We can measure a car traveling at 60 miles per hour (100 km/hr) or a tortoise crawling at 0.5 miles per hour (0.80 k,/hr) and simultaneously pinpoint where the objects are located. But in the quantum world of particles, making these calculations is not possible due to a fundamental mathematical relationship called the uncertainty principle…. if we could shrink a tortoise down to the size of an electron, we would only be able to precisely calculate its speed or its location, not both at the same time.”
That quote might seem like a foolish thought-experiment, but think about how we might determine the instantaneous velocity of a speeding car. Many drivers have been clocked by a remote speed camera or a policemen holding a “speed gun” beside the highway. As soon as your vehicle’s speed is captured, your car’s location has changed: both can’t be recorded simultaneously.
Schrodinger's Cat: Quoting, “…Schrödinger said that if you place a cat and something that could kill the cat (a radioactive atom) in a box and sealed it, you would not know if the cat were dead or alive until you opened the box, so that until the box was opened, the cat was both “dead and alive”. This is used to represent how scientific theory works. No one knows if any scientific theory is right or wrong until said theory can be tested and proven.[3]”.
What if I put an orange in the refrigerator. Not until I open the door will you know if the orange is there, or not. Two of several options may apply: I may not live alone and another person took the orange without my knowledge. Or, my mind’s eye flashes back to a previous time when I had an orange, put it in the fridge, but this time there is no orange to be missed because I didn't buy one.
How to Thrive in an Uncertain World: Quoting, ““Life is inherently uncertain, and if you have difficulty dealing with that, you will have difficulty dealing with life,” says Michel Dugas, a professor of psychology at the University of Quebec in Outaouais and a leader in the study of uncertainty and mental health….Tolerating and even delighting in uncertainty doesn’t merely help us to accept life’s unpredictability; it also readies us to learn and adapt.”
Humans can never live a risk-free life. Everything in the Universe is connected, nothing is static.
Perturbations: When I first imagined this article I had not seriously considered the greater picture; I am more familiar with trying to quantify variability (coming soon). However, life is not complete without its perturbations; they can arrive and be welcomed or not, they can vary in size and impact upon our intrinsic self-system. Imagine if there were distinct categories and well managed descriptions. Upon reflection, our lives are often guided by random encounters with people, circumstances, personal decisions and existential events, regardless the time and place in which we live. When we design research programs or policy strategies, design elements are defined. Our model can never account for 100% of the uncertainty. If that were the case, it could be labeled over parametrized, thus useless.
Societal Fears Lead to Uncertainty
Christopher Bader, lead scientist of the annual Chapman Survey of American Fears, wrote “Americans live in a culture of fear”. In a recent interview by the New York Time he stated, “… fears stem from uncertainty. That can take many forms.” Further, “In times of societal change… “When people are uncertain, we see their fears rise in all perspectives, not just fear of government.” Corruption in government was found to be one of the great fears.
Examples of Events that have had Global Impacts and Created Global Uncertainty
These sorts of extreme events events can never be predicted with any certainty.
- The attacks on and destruction of the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, and the years that have followed.
- Covid-19, first announced as a threat by the World Health Organisation on March 11, 2020: the virus persists globally and continues to mutate.
- The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, on February 24, 2022: the war is ongoing.
- The attacks on Israel by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent invasion of Gaza by Israel: the war is ongoing.
- Extreme weather events are increasing globally in frequency and intensity; attribution studies have implicated climate change as a significant factor.
Humans have Created a Cumulative Archive of Knowledge via Language, Literature, Mathematics and Systems of Weights and Measures
It would then seem, with so much uncertainty, an impossible leap for organic life to be sustained. Yet, it has for billions of years. During that course of evolutionary time humans evolved brains capable of complex creativity, for good and bad. Instead from a cave, or any natural shelter, we created societies for security and division of labour, built shelters that provided greater breadth of habitable environments and discovered new resources required for survival over thousands of years. From structures like Stonehenge and the Maya Calendar to a simple sundial, humans realized that we could catalogue time. Predicting the future, that is a different matter, but “time’s past” is used constantly in meteorology, economics, the arts and sciences. For better or worse, we modern humans have organised our lives around time, thus often using the past as a predictor, regardless the uncertainty.
Weight, length and volume, coupled with geometry, were early necessities as societies became more hierarchical and trade flourished amongst varied peoples. Systems of numbers evolved over the past ~ 6000 years, the basis for science, technology and ways of adapting to uncertainty in real-time. The foundations for expanding commerce, science and creativity were then in place. The human mind was at the centre.
Uncertainty contains elements of a paradox. Whether unexpected outcomes are positive, or negative, each one yields new knowledge. Subsequent iterations can reduce the variability, i.e. converging to the best possible choice.
Through the Momentum of Knowledge and Cultural Exchanges Humans Derived Natural Laws using Math and Astronomy
Humans that had access to the current basic education and who were free men and women had the luxury of time spent observing and thinking. With observation came the realisation that the observable Universe behaved in predicable patterns. An oft used example is that of the ancient Egyptian societies and their mythology (religion), leading to elaborate homes for the gods and tombs for the pharaoh's afterlife. Human frailty, natural disasters, crop failures were events that could be attributed to wrath of the Deities, the constellations and the imperfections of humans.
Alberta Einstein published several notable papers in 1905, on on Special Relativity and followed in 1915 with his famous paper on General Relativity. Quoting a recent article by Areeba Merriman: “… in relativity, what’s “now” depends on where you’re watching from.” Special relativity contains paradoxes that are being explored today. It presents its own uncertainty that must be accounted for… further quoting Merriman: “…special relativity has truly altered our understanding of time, space, and the concept of simultaneous events.” .
What are “facts” that we believe with certainty, while knowing very well that knowledge evolves daily? Some examples follow.
- the 24 hour clock of Sunrise and Sunset, given that we are alive to witness these.
- the speed of light
- the approximate number of days that the moon revolves around the Earth
- our systems of numbers, secure in the belief that 1+1=2
- DNA and/or RNA are required for organic evolution
- Death and Taxes: If I am alive today writing this, then someday I will be dead but, not without having paid taxes.
- Despite claims to the contrary, we cannot describe death without invoking science, theology and/or philosophy
- Entropy. It is universal, abiotically and biotically.
- Evolution may be predictable.
Caveat
The above list is incomplete and dominated by one huge condition — — we are unable to claim knowledge about any of the above without being a conscious, sentient being. While actuaries can place a probability on our lifespan, the end-date is unknown until it arrives: it’s part of having the gift of a life. There is no reason to be morose, it is part of the uncertainty and excitement in our lives.
There can be humour in uncertainty.
Thank you for using your time to read my writing. If you found yourself gaining new insight(s), I’m pleased.
Zack Florence
